CONTENTS
Speeches of the Fall Forum of Analyses and Forecasts on China’s
Economy in 2011 (Preface I) .............................. Chen Jiagui／001
Reviews on the International Economic Situations
in 2011 (Preface II) ......................................... Li Yang／001
1 Analyses and Forecasts on China’s Economy
——The Fall Report, 2011 .............................. Project Group／001
2 A Summary of the Fall Forum of Analyses and Forecasts
on China’s Economy in 2011 ................................ Peng Zhan／014
Ⅰ General Forecast
3 An Analysis of China’s Economic Situation in 2011
and During the 12th Five-year Plan Period ............... Liu Shucheng／021
4 Analyses and Outlooks on China’s Economy
Situation in 2011 ....................................... Fan Jianping／034
5 Analyses and Forecasts on the Growth of
the National Economy in 2011-2012 ..................... Yuan Da et al.／045
6 Analyses and Outlooks on China’s Economy Situation
in 2011-2012 ............................................. Zhang Liqun／051
7 Analyses and Forecasts on the Economic Sentiment and
the Future Trend of Prices in 2011-2012 .............. Chen Lei et al.／060
Ⅱ Policies Analysis
8 Inflation Dropping at High Level, Growth
Rate Slowing Down to Solid
——China Economy 2011 Review and 2012 Outlook ........ Zheng Jingping／080
9 Macro Policy Goals, Potential Growth and Policy Options .... Zhang Ping／092
10 Policies of China’s Economic Development in 2012 ............ Li Boxi／103
11 Analyses and Outlooks on China’s Macro-economic
Situation in 2011-2012 ...................................... Gong Min／112
12 China’s Macroeconomic Situation and Policies: 2011-2012
........................................................ Project Group／120
13 Real-time Forecasts and Short-term Predictions of the Real GDP
Growth Rate in the Early Period of Twelfth Five-year Plan
................................................... Liu Jinquan et al.／133
Ⅲ Finance and Banking
14 Financial Operation Under the Stable Monetary Policy .. Wang Yi et al.／148
15 Analyses and Forecasts on China’s Economic Tax Situation
in 2011-2012 ............................................ Zhang Peisen／161
16 Review and Analysis of Shanghai Securities Market in 2012
and Prospects for 2012 ................................ Wu Qian et al.／169
Ⅳ Special Study
17 Analysis and Outlook: 2011-2012 China’s Foreign
Trade and FDI ................................... Pei Changhong et al.／184
18 Analysis of Foreign Trade of China in 2011
and Outlook of 2012 ..................................... Ding Weishun／197
19 Is There Potential for Exploiting Surplus Labor in Agriculture?
............................................................. Cai Fang／204
20 China’s Employment Situation and Prospects in 2011-2012
................................................... Yang Yiyong et al.／213
21 Analysis and Outlook of Rural Society and
Economy in China ................................. Dang Guoying et al.／225
22 Analysis and Outlook of Energy Condition in China (2011-2012)
............................................................ Huang Tao／237
23 Analysis of China Commodities Market in 2011 and Outlook
of that in 2012 ........................................... Chen Kexin／252
Ⅴ Regional Economy
24 Economic Growth Analysis in Shanghai and Development
Prediction (2011-2012) ........................... Zhu Pingfang et al.／260
25 Analysis and Outlook of Chongqing Economic Condition
Based on CASS Index (2011-2012) .................. Wang Chongju et al.／273
26 Analysis of Economic Operation of the Six Provinces
in Middle China During 2011-2012
——Based on The CASS Indicators ................ Chen Nianhong et al.／280
27 China’s Regional Trend Analysis of Industrial Competitiveness
..................................................... Wu Yiqing et al.／293
Ⅵ Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan’s Economy
28 Analysis and Forecast of the Economy of Taiwan Region 2011-2012
................................................. Zhang Guanhua et al.／301
29 Prediction of Economic Condition of Taiwan ........ Liu Mengjun et al.／312
30 Analysis and Outlook of Hong Kong’s Economy ............ Chenli Ailun／325
31 Analysis and Outlook of Macao’s Economy ............... Project Group／346
Ⅷ International Background
32 Analysis and Outlook of Global Economy (2011-2012)
................................................... Zhang Yuyan et al.／355
33 Appendix：Statistical Data ...........................................／370
This book is on the basis of the conference: Analysis and Prediction of China’s Economy (Fall 2011), directed by the Project Group of Analysis and Prediction of China’s Economy in CASS. Experts, researchers and economists in governments, research organizations, and universities contribute to the book.
Integrated prediction chapter, policy analysis chapter, fiscal and financial chapter, special studies chapter, regional economy chapter, economy in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau chapter and global economy chapter are included. Based on the quantitative and qualitative methods, China’s macro-economic and micro-economic conditions, especially in the global economic situation, some new circumstances and problems of China’s economic growth, are analyzed profoundly, and China’s economic trends are predicted.
Economic condition of China in 2011 was very complex, and 2011 was the first year of China’s Twelfth Five Year Plan. Generally speaking, China’s economy developed at high rate and performed well in 2011. In particular, a series of policy about enhancing irrigation and water conservancy were carried out, leading to the stable development of agriculture. Furthermore, industrial production constantly developed to the objective of national macro-control with improved situation, and the service industries developed with accelerating pace. Additionally, national revenue increased significantly, and resident income also rose. However, the CPI sharply ascended, which has attracted wide attention. All the above aspects were analyzed credibly by the experts of this book.
Economic conditions in 2012, according to the prediction, would be more complicated. According to lack of vitality in advanced economies, decline in market confidence, global economy would be in swamp with long period. Although China’s economy would continue to develop with high rate, and the CPI would decline, the mission of macro regulation and control is very arduous with multi-targets and multi-challenges. Therefore, China should get ready for the intricate economic situations.
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