CONTENTS
Speeches of the Fall Forum of Analyses and Forecasts on China
Economy in 2012 (Preface Ⅰ)................................... Chen Jiagui／001
Improving Efficiency Is the Key of Transformation and
Development (Preface Ⅱ) .......................................... Li Yang／007
1 Analysis and Forecast of China Economic Situation
eport of Fall 2012 .......................................... Project Group／001
2 A Summary of the Fall Forum of Analyses and Forecasts on China
Economy in 2012 ................................................. Peng Zhan／015
Ⅰ Economic Growth and Industry Development
3 An Analysis of China Economic Situation at the Present Time and in
the Medium-term Future ....................................... Liu Shucheng／021
4 Decline in the Potential Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy and
the Risk of Deflation ................................... Zhang Ping et al.／031
5 The Development Forecast of the National Economy in 2012 and
Outlook for 2013 ........................................... Yuan Da et al.／048
6 Economic Condition in the First Three Quarters of 2012 and
Outlook For 2013 ................................................ Liu Aihua／054
7 A Brief Analysis of the Situation of the hree Rural in 2012 . Li Zhou et al.／065
8 Analysis and Prospect of Industrial Economic Situation in the
First Three Quarters of 2012 ............................... Jin Bei et al.／076
Ⅱ Macro Economic Policy and Macroeconomic Regulation and Control
9 Respecting the Objective Laws,and Stability for the Progress .. Wang Tongsan／099
10 Structural Tax-Reduction on the Multiple Macroeconomic Policy Objectives
............................................................... Gao Peiyong／108
11 Drop Was More than Expected, Fulfilling Steady Progress
under Appropriate Policies
hina Economy 2012 Review and 2013 Outlook .................. Zheng Jingping／119
12 Monetary and Credit Policy When Economic Growth Slowed Down
............................................................ Wang Yi et al.／132
13 China Economy Makes Steady Growth in the Transition Period:
Analysis and Prospects of Economic Situation in 2012-2013 ..... Zhang Liqun／147
14 Policy Choice of Chinese Economic Development in 2013 ............. Li Boxi／156
Ⅲ Analysis of Consumption, Investment, Import and Export Situation
15 Analysis and Forecast of China Trade Situation in 2012
...................................................... Pei Changhong et al.／165
16 Analysis of Fixed Asset Investment of China in 2012 and 2013 .. Zhang Hanya／179
17 Bright Point of China Macro Economy in 2012: Consumption
Promotes Economic Growth ....................................... Jin Bosong／188
Ⅳ Market Price and Income Distribution
18 The Population Change and Resulting Slow-down in Potential
GDP Growth in China ....................................... Cai Fang et al.／194
19 China Monetary Policy and Financial Situation in 2012 ............ Dong Yun／206
20 China Employment Situation and Prospects in 2012-2013 .. Yang Yiyong et al.／226
21 Analysis and Forecast in Chinese Tax Situation in 2012 and
Outlook in 2013 ............................................... Fu Guangjun／237
22 Analysis and Prospect of the Commodity Market in 2012 .......... Chen Kexin／247
23 The Analysis and Forecasting of China Economic Situations and
Price Movement: 2012-2013 ................................. Chen Lei et al.／256
24 Review and Analysis of Shanghai Securities Market
in 2012 and Prospects for 2013 ............................. Wu Qian et al.／281
25 Analysis and Prospect of Financial Stress Based on Current
Running Situation in China ........................... Chen Shoudong et al.／293
Ⅴ Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao’s Economy
26 Analysis and Forecast of the Economy of Taiwan Region
...................................................... Zhang Guanhua et al.／312
27 Forecasts on Taiwan Economy ............................ Liu Mengjun et al.／324
28 Analysis and Forecast of Hong Kong Economy .................. Chen Li Ailun／335
29 Analysis and Forecast of Macao ......................... Economy Task Group／348
30 Appendix: Statistical Data ................................................／360
31 Postscript ................................................................／367
Chen Jiagui, Ph.D.in Economics, is the director of CASS Economics Division, senior research fellow and a doctoral supervisor, member of standing committee of 10th and 11th National People's Congress (NPC), member of NPC Financial and Economic Committee. And he is also a president of Chinese Institute of Business Administration, vice president of China Federation of Industrial Economics, convener of management group of National Social Science Fund.
Research Areas:
Mainly engaged in the industrial economy, business economy, enterprise reform and Enterprises Management areas.
Li Yang, vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of People's Bank of China; Chairman, academic committee of Research Base for Industrial Finance (RBIF) .
Dr. Li has significant influence on the economic development in China and the globe. He is delegated as nonvoting attendee in regular meeting of State Council (国务院常务会议列席成员). He participates in decision-makings and formulates strategies on important financial and economic issues both national and international.
Dr. Li has strong connections with senior government officers from various countries and leaders of financial institutions such as IMF, World Bank, OECD, Asian Development Bank, Central Banks, etc. He is also frequently invited as key note speaker in World Economic Forum and as featured economist by Bloomberg, "Financial Times" and "Wall Street Journal". Dr. Li was a visiting professor in Columbia University and is a professor in top-tier universities as Peking and Tsinghua University.
Given the global background that the world economic recovery was weak and the European sovereign debt crisis arose repeatedly, it is predictable that China's economy growth rate would decrease to around 7.5% in 2012. In the first three quarters of 2012, the declined GDP growth rates abated gradually, the economy performed in stabilization as the whole and the agricultural sector ran well. Although the growth of industry sector lowered, the industrial structure continually optimized. Also, the consumption performed steadily with the support of domestic demands, and the investment grew rapidly as before. Because of the weak recovery in developed countries, however, the external demand reduced significantly. Furthermore, the employment market was basically stable, the income of households grew rapidly, and the inflation of commodity price lowered. All these together present an overall sound economic operation.
In 2013, although the global economy will still be in complex situations and some deep level problems of China's economy will remain unresolved, there are many conditions in favor of China's stable and rapid growth. The growth rate of China economy will depend on the global economic conditions and the progress of domestic deep level structural adjustment.
Remaining stable growth is a key target of current China's economic operation. Meanwhile it is also important to deal with the relationship between the stable growth and the economic structure adjustment, and between the structural transformation and the deepening reform. We should optimize the investment structure by stabilizing the investment growth, and maintain stable and rapid GDP growth by reducing the VAT rate appropriately and expanding the structural tax cuts. Also, we should cultivate the longterm economic growth potential by improving the technical and institutional innovation and enhancing the labor force's quality.
京公网安备 11010202010375号 新出网证（京）字094号
