YⅠOverview
Y.1Analysis and Forecast of the World Economy in 2012-2013
Zhang Yuyan, Xu Xiujun / 001
YⅡCountry / Region Study
Y.2US Economy: Recovery and ChallengesSun Jie / 021
Y.3European Economy: from Recession to RecoveryDong Yan / 049
Y.4Japanese Economy: Shaky Economic RecoveryFeng Weijiang / 073
Y.5Asia-Pacific Economy: Towards an Independent Growth Path
Yang Panpan, Feng Weijiang / 091
Y.6Russia: Better Growth Prospects and Faster Integration
into the Global EconomyGao Lingyun, Liu Xiulian / 107
Y.7Latin America抯 Economy: Different Growth Rates
Challenge the 揕atin America抯 Decade擩iang Shixue / 125
Y.8Western Asian and African Economy: Strong Economic
Growth Coupled with Social TurmoilTu Qin, Tian Feng / 143
Y.9China抯 Economy: Why Macro抯 Mild Slow Down
Comes with Micro抯 QuencherXu Qiyuan, Zhang Bin / 165
YⅢSpecial Reports
Y.10International Trade: Developments and Prospects
Ni Yueju, Ma Tao / 177
Y.11International Finance: Developments and Prospects
Gao Haihong, Liu Dongmin / 195
Y.12International Direct Investment: Developments and Prospects
Pan Yuanyuan / 217
Y.13International Commodity Market: Developments and Prospects
Yao Zhizhong / 243
YⅣHot Topics
Y.14European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Future of the Euro Zone
He Fan, Xiao Lisheng / 257
Y.15The US Energy Development Trend and Its Global ImpactXu Xiaojie / 278
Y.16New Trend of Global Industrial DevelopmentSong Hong / 299
Y.17The Causes and Remedies of the Volatile International Capital Flow
Zhang Ming, Xiao Lisheng / 314
Y.18New Developments of Asia-Pacific Economic RelationsLi Chunding / 330
Y.19General Elections and Economic Policy AdjustmentXu Xiujun / 351
YⅤStatistics of the World Economy
Y.20Statistics of the World Economy in 2012-2013Cao Yongfu, Wu Haiying / 369
Description:
The world economy slowed in 2012. The advanced economies are experiencing serious economic and social problems such as high unemployment, high level debt, little room for traditional fiscal and monetary policies. The increasing retiree of baby boomer will further the deterioration of the aging problem. The recovering of the US and Japanese economy becomes slower, and the Euro Zone is suffering a negative growth. Due to a sharp decline of external demand and painful domestic economic adjustment, some major emerging markets and developing economies also experienced economic slowdown.
The further of global economy is also complicated by the sluggish world trade, mounting protectionism, and volatile commodity prices, unconventional monetary policies helped to boost the stock markets but increased its potential risks. There are limited progresses on the reform of global governance, as well as regional economic integration. In 2013, the outlook of world economy is shadowed by risk factors like the “fiscal cliff” in the US, the worsening of Europe debt crisis, excessive liquidity, trade protectionism, as well as regional tensions on security issues. The moderate and slow growth of the global economy will become a new normal.