Contents
China’s Economic Development has Entered a New Stage（Preface）【Li Yang】／001
1 Analyses and Forecasts on China’s Economy
—The Fall Report in 2013【Project Group】／001
1. China’s Economy Has Ushered in a New Stage of Steady and
High Efficiency／002
2. Prediction of Main Indicators of National Economy in 2013-2014／004
3. Continue to Implement the Proactive Fiscal Policy and
Prudent Monetary Policy／008
4. Keep Investment Growth Reasonably, Promote Consumption Upgrading
and the Industrial Technological Innovation／011
5. Deepen Reform and Opening up, Enhance Economic Development Potential／014
2 A Summary of the Fall Forum of Analyses and Forecasts on China’s Economy
in 2013【Peng Zhan】／017
3 Chinese Economy Has Entered a Phase of Medium-to-high Rate Growth
【Liu Shucheng】／023
4 The Real Economy’s Drawing Back, Financial Expanding and Choices of
Transformation Paths in China【Zhang Ping,Su Zhi】／035
5 State of National Economy in the First Three Quarters of 2013
and Its Outlook in 2014【Wang Wenbo】／055
6 Forecast of National Economic Development in 2013 and 2014
【Zhao Kun，Wang Baolin】／068
7 An Analysis of the State of the“Three Rural Issues”
in 2013【Li Zhou，Dang Guoying】／073
8 Current Industrial Economic Situation and Analysis of
Development Trend【Jin Bei, Yuan Lei】／085
9 Analysis of the Industrial Economy in 2013 and Forecasting Its
Annual Growth【Xie Sanming】／105
10 Understanding Current Financial and Economic Situation
in China【Gao Peiyong】／120
11 Improving Macro-control Level, Handling the Relationship
between Government and Market【Wang Tongsan】／128
12 Financial Conditions under Structural Adjustment and
Stable Economic Growth【Wang Yi，Shi Chunhua and Ye Huan】／134
13 China’s Economy Has Entered the Growth Interval of 7%-8%:
Economic Situation in 2013 and Prospects in 2014【Zhang Liqun】／146
14 China’s Economic Development Policy in 2014【Li Boxi】／154
15 China’s Macro-economic Situation and Policies:
2013-2014【Institute of Economic Research, Renmin University，China】／161
16 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Foreign Trade
in 2013【Pei Changhong，Fu Caifang】／174
17 China’s Foreign Trade in 2013 and Its Outlook in 2014【Chen Kaijie】／188
18 Seeking Development in Adjustment：Analysis and Forecast on China’s
Foreign Trade Situation in 2013-2014【Jin Baisong，Liu Jianying】／195
19 Review and Analysis of Shanghai Securities Market in 2013 and
Prospects for 2014【Wu Qian，Zhu Pingfang】／212
20 Present Situation and Trend of Rural Labor
Transfer【Cai Fang，Wang Meiyan】／230
21 China’s Employment Situation and Prospects
in 2013-2014【Yang Yiyong，Yang Yazhe and Huang Yandong】／242
22 Forecast and Analysis of China’s Tax Situation in 2013 and
Preliminary Outlook in 2014【Fu Guangjun】／253
23 Commodity Market Analysis in 2013 and Its Outlook in 2014【Chen Kexin】／265
24 The Analysis and Forecasting of China’s Economic Situation and
Price Movement: 2013-2014【Chen Lei，Sui Zhanlin】／274
25 Analysis and Forecast of China’s Financial Stability
【Wang Yan，Chen Shoudong and Liu Yang】／297
26 Analysis and Forecast of the Economy of Taiwan Region
【Zhang Guanhua，Xiong Junli】／308
27 Analysis and Prospect of Taiwan’s Economic Situation
【Liu Mengjun，Peng Suling and Chen Xinhui】／323
28 Analysis and Prospect of Hong Kong’s Economic Situation
【Chen Li, AiLun】／337
29 Analysis of and Forecast for Macao Economy【Task Group】／358
Description:
With the slow recovery of the international economy, China’s economy continues to advance steadily. Three Industries coordinate development under the domestic macro-economic control. Food production is expected to achieve ten years’ increase continually, and the industrial economy grows slow and steady in the first three quarters. The profitability of enterprises have greatly improved, and the added value of scale and the growth rate of the third industry are better than the second industry. It is expected that China’s GDP growth rate in 2013 is as same as the last year, and the development trend are maintaining steady growth and making the structure optimized.
Nowadays, China’s economy does not pursue of 10% high-speed growth, and enters in a new growth stage of mid-speed development, and focuses on advance steadily, quality and efficiency. At present, China is still in a strategic opportunity period. The economy will continue to maintain in a reasonable interval, and the GDP growth rate is around 7.5% in 2014. The government should not only pay close attention to international economic change, but also promote the economy equity, efficiency, and sustainable by deepening of reform and opening up, promoting structural adjustment, trans-formatting and upgrading, making balance of steady growth, adjusting structure, promoting reform, preventing risks, to make the speed of economic growth continually in a reasonable interval.
The Third Plenary Session of the eighteen will deepen reform and opening up, promote the innovation of system and mechanism, to make the new deployment, perfect the macro-control system, build the innovative country, accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, gradually form a unified and open, competitive and orderly market system, and further improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
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