Contents
Ⅰ Introduction
1 An Overview of International Politics and Security in 2014
【Task Force Report of the Annual Report on International Politics and Security
Written by Lang Ping】/001
Abstract: In 2014, the Ukraine crisis, ISIS, and the East and South China Seas attracted the attention of the international communit With the involvement of the major powers, the conflicts had significant and far-reaching influences on international political and economic patterns. Compared with Sino-Russian relations, which involved frequent summits and interactions, due to the situation in Ukraine relations between the United States and Russia were at their worst ever since the end of the Cold War, and EU-Russian relations also were becoming increasingly estranged. The “new type” of Sino-U.S. relations is still facing many challenges, such as the issues in East and South China Seas and cyber-espionage. China’s border security situation remains tense but controllable. In the face of this complex regional and international environment, China’s diplomacy has become more flexible and pragmatic, putting forward innovative thinking and new ideas on summit diplomacy, border diplomacy, and regional cooperation.
Keywords: International Security; Hot Issues; Crisis in Ukraine; Relations among the Major Powers; Chinese Foreign Affairs
Ⅱ Great Power Relations and International Security
2 Conflicts and Cooperation among the Major Countries in 2014【Wang Mingming】/016
Abstract: In 2014, due to the crisis in Ukraine, U.S.-Russian relations became worse than ever since the Cold War. The contradictions between the United States and Russia are mainly related to the conflicts in the relationship between Russia and the EU. Sino-U.S. relations encountered many problems during the past year, but the main causes were associated with the territorial disputes between China and its eastern and southeastern neighbors, not direct conflicts between China and the United States. China’s participation in the 2014 Pacific Rim Navy Exercise was a significant positive event in Sino-U.S. bilateral relations. Sino-Russian relations reached a new level against the background of the crisis in Ukraine, but distrust still remains. Sino-U.S. and Russian-U.S. conflicts were prominent in 2014, but these conflicts mainly focused on Chinese and Russian border issues. The three countries are all willing to ease the conflicts through cooperation on global issues and regional crisis management and to maintain normal relationships.
Keywords: Russian-U.S. Relations;Ukraine Crisis;Sino-U.S. Relations;Joint Naval Exercise;Sino-Russian;Triangular Relations
3 An Assessment of National Capabilities and the Influence of the Major Countries (2014)
【Yang Yuan】/040
Abstract: The existing international configuration established since the end of the Cold War is facing new adjustments due to the rise of the emerging economies represented by the BRIC countries. China, as one of the newly emerging powers, is now at a critical period in terms of its rise. Therefore, it is of great significance that we accurately assess the relative capabilities and influence of the major powers. This report explores the capabilities and influence of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, China, Russia, India, and Brazil during the 2013-2014. period. The results show that the situation of “one superpower and multi great powers” has yet to be fundamentally changed and the United States is still the undisputed “sole superpower” in the world. Whether the international structure will be changed from “unipolarity” to “bipolarity” in the future will depend on China.
Keywords: International Influence; Forces for International Political Mobilization; Comprehensive National Power;China’s Rise
4 The World’s Major Armed Conflicts and an Assessment of the Military Situation: 2013-2014
【Xu Jin】/065
Abstract: The world’s major armed conflicts in 2013 and 2014 were almost identical to those in the previous year. The Middle East, South Asia, and Northeast Africa were the scenes of the majority of the armed conflicts. The war in Afghanistan, the civil wars in Syria and Ukraine, and the civil armed conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, and Nigeria have attracted global attention. Global military expenditures in 2013 were a little less than those in 2012, whereas military expenditures Asia and Oceania grew steadil During last year, the United States, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and France were the world’s top five in terms of military expenditures.
Keywords:Armed Conflicts;Syrian War;Ukraine Civil War;Military Expenditures; Armaments
5 China’s Border Security Situation: 2013-2014【Wang Lei】/091
Abstract: Over the past year, China faced four challenges in terms of maintaining its border securit First, the United States strengthened its rebalancing strategy, which led to problems in Sino-U.S. relations. Second, the Abe government in Japan pursued a policy to contain and isolate China, which led to a serious deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations. Third, because of intervention by extraterritorial powers, marine territorial issues became increasingly complex and intractable. In addition, some serious frequently occurring issues weakened stability in China’s surrounding situation. Overall, although China’s periphery environment remained relatively stable and the maintenance of normal relations and cooperation were still a mainstream trend between China and its neighbors, the difficulties faced by China to maintain its border security and stability increased.
Keywords: China’s Border Security; Rebalancing Strategy; Strategic Containment
Ⅲ Global Issues and Global Governance
6 Global Cyber-Governance: A Field of Competition among the Major Powers【Lang Ping】/115
Abstract: The year of 2014 was an important benchmark for global cyber-governance. As Edward Snowden leaked more documents showing the scale of international surveillance by NSA, the United States was widely criticized by the international community, and outraged EU leaders began to make efforts to shield their countries from surveillance. The United States once again accused China of cyber-espionage on American companies and announced indictments against five Chinese military personnel who were claimed to be engaged in hacking operations. This resulted in Sino-U.S. relations reaching a new low. However, there are no global cyber norms to provide rules for countries to follow in cyberspace; therefore the development of cyber norms is an urgent issue for international societ There are likely to be three notable trends. First, competition will continue between the developed countries and the developing powers in terms of their governance approach and theories, with the former arguing for a “global commons” and the latter supporting “cyber sovereignt” Second, although a cyber-war is unlikely to occur in the near future, cyber-war offensives and defensive capabilities will be increasingly important to build national military power, Third, low-profile cyber conflicts have had a negative impact on major power relations and require that countermeasures be taken by the involved governments.
Keywords: Cyber Security; Cyber Governance; Edward Snowden; Cyber Norms
7 Global Energy Politics: 2013-2014【Xue Li】/138
Abstract: In the past year, global hotspots in energy politics have emerged. The most conspicuous event took place in Europe. The scramble for Ukraine among Russia, the EU, and the United States immediately influenced the structure of global energy supply and demand. Sino-Russian energy cooperation leapt forward early in the year. Many hotspots emerged in Asia, and the emerging ISIS impacted oil production in Iraq and Syria. The “HP-981 case” cast a shadow not only on Sino-Vietnamese relations but also on relations between China and ASEAN and China and the United States. One of the most noticeable hotspots in Africa was the civil war in South Sudan, replacing last year’s conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. In North America, energy reform in Mexico was the most significant event in energy politics. Global nuclear development is undergoing further recover The Iranian nuclear issue is still a difficult problem, but the main progress on this issue consisted of several rounds of bilateral negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Keywords: Global Energy;Global Energy Politics;Energy Politics Cooperation;Ukraine Crisis;ISIS
8 Global Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: 2013-2014【Shao Feng】/161
Abstract: Since 2013, the forces of global terrorism have been developing rapidl Both from statistical data and developmental trends, the international counter-terrorism situation appears to be becoming more serious. The development of global terrorism and the fight against terrorism have following features: The focus of counterterrorism in the international community has changed from Al Qaeda to ISIS; The terrorist organizations have revealed an ambition to build a religious state; The United States faces the dilemma of once again sending troops to Iraq; The Western countries face a real possibility of terrorist attacks within their respective borders. China is also facing increasingly serious threats of terrorism.
Keywords:Global Terrorism;Anti-terrorism;Islamic State
9 The International Crisis Migration and Immigration Issues: 2013-2014【Yang Jingmin】/184
Abstract: Migration is becoming one of the most world’s serious issues because of the ongoing numerous refugee crises in the recent two years. By the end of 2013, 5.12 million persons worldwide had been displaced due to humanitarian crises, and among them 16.7 million were refugees. The developing countries hosted 86 percent the worldwide refugees. Conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic forced nearly 2.2 million persons to flee in 2013, representing the largest annual exodus by a single refugee group since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The EU members are facing an issue of trust due to their unequal burden from the immigrants, and the “Jihadi migrants” are also causing them to be nervous. In addition, what happened in Ukraine forced a large number of people to flee to Russia and Eastern Europe. Some European countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom, quickly implemented policies to reduce the number of refugees. Immigration reform in the United States did not proceed well this year, and the results of the midterm elections will influence subsequent trends.
Keywords: Crisis Migration; Crisis Migrants; Refugees; Asylum Seekers
Ⅳ International Conferences and International
The book provides an in-depth analysis of the cooperation and conflicts among China, Russia and the United States, and examines the main factors that affect and changing directions of Sino-US, Sino-Russia and US-Russia relations. The report covers such key issues as network security, global energy and environmental politics, terrorism, international migration, among others. Contributors review the Nuclear Security Summit, Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Ukrainian crisis, and UN initiatives in the field of international peace and security in 2014. The report also offers a survey of research results from the latest works on the crisis in Crimea, the Scottish independence referendum, the Ebola outbreak in Africa, and political changes in West Asia and North Africa.