CONTENTS

Ⅰ　Topic One: Population, Employment and Income Distribution
1　Chapter 1　Monitoring Survey Report on Migrant Workers in 2013
　　　　　　　【Household Survey Office, National Bureau of Statistics】／001
　　1. Scale of Migrant Population Size／001
　　2. Distributions of Migrant Workers Flow／004
　　3. Employment of Migrant Workers／005
　　4. Income and Consumptions of Migrant Workers／007
　　5. Housing of Migrant Workers／009
　　6. Social Security of Migrant Workers／011
　　7. Characteristics of New Generation of Migrant Workers／014
2　Chapter 2　Scenarios of Population Development and Policy Orientation
　　　　　　　【Guo Zhenwei, Qi Xianfeng and Mao Zhuoyan】／016
　　1. Current Fertility Level／016
　　2. Scenarios of Population Development／019
　　3. Implications for Economic and Social Development／024
3　Chapter 3　Key Issues in Employment, Human Capital and Income Distribution
　　　　　　　in the 13th Five-Year Period
　　　　　　　【Cai Fang, Zhang Juwei, Du Yang, Gao Wenshu and Wang Meiyan】／033
　　1. Key Issues in Employment and Labor Market／033
　　2. Human Capital Accumulation during the Middle-Income Stage／041
　　3. Income Distribution and Policy Direction／046

Ⅱ　Topic Two: Transition from Demographic Dividend To Reform Dividend
4　Chapter 4　The Impact of Reform Dividend on China’s Potential Growth Rate
 　　　　　【Cai Fang, Lu Yang】／052
　　1. Introduction／052
　　2. Economic Basis of Reform Dividend／054
　　3. Growth Effects of Reform Dividend／056
　　4. Priority Areas of Reform／065
5　Chapter 5　Imbalance and Rebalance of China’s Economic Structure【Wang Xiaolu】／072
　　1. Impact of Income Distribution on Consumption-Saving Structure／074
　　2. Insufficient Consumption Demand and Structure Imbalance／079
　　3. Is there a Golden-Rule Saving Rate?／083
　　4. Achieving Structure Rebalance through Reform／088
6　Chapter 6　Labor Market Changes and Sources of Economic Growth: Pursuing Economic
　　　　　　　Growth Driven by Total Factor Productivity【Du Yang】／092
　　1. Introduction／092
　　2. New Changes in Labor Market／093
　　3. Sources of Economic Growth and Sustainability／097
　　4. Promoting Economic Growth during the Post-Middle Income Stage／100
7　Chapter 7　Benefits of Comprehensively Deepening Household Registration System Reform
　　　　　　　【Du Yang, Cai Fang, Qu Xiaobo and Cheng Jie】／102
　　1. Connotation of Household Registration System Reform／102
　　2. Why Deepening Household Registration System Reform Can Gain Growth Dividend?／105
　　3. An Econometric Analysis on Household Registration System Reform Benefits／107
　　4. How Much Dividend Can We Gain from Household Registration System Reform?／112
　　5. Conclusions／118
8　Chapter 8　Extending Compulsory Education: Accumulating Human Capital towards
　　　　　　　a High-Income Country【Du Yang】／121
　　1. Crossing Over Middle Income Trap Requires More Human Capital Accumulation／122
　　2. Extending Compulsory Education is the Natural Extension of Education Development
　　　Strategy／128
　　3. Plausibility of Achieving Compulsory Education at Senior High School Level
　　　in the 13th Five-Year Period／130
　　4. Timetable and Roadmap of Extending Compulsory  Education／131

Ⅲ　Topic Three: Building a Better Social Security Network
9　Chapter 9　Social Security in Urban and Rural Areas: Current Status, Challenges and
　　　　　　　Policy Suggestions【Cai Fang, Wang Meiyan】／136
　　1. Introduction／136
　　2. Current Status of Social Security in Urban China／137
　　3. Current Status of Social Security in Rural China／140
　　4. Sustainability Challenges of Urban and Rural Social Security Systems／143
　　5. Perfecting Social Security Systems: Debates, Suggestions and Directions／146
　　6. Conclusions／149
10　Chapter 10　Observations on Equalizing Basic Public Services of Rural Migrant Workers
　　　　　　　　in Urban Areas【Gao Wenshu, Cheng Jie】／151
　　1. New Progress of Equalizing Basic Public Services／151
　　2. Problems and Challenges of Equalizing Basic Public Services／156
　　3. Suggestions on Speeding up Equalizing Basic Public Services／159
11　Chapter 11　Mobility-Adapted Equitable Development: China’s Challenges and Prospects
　　　　　　　　【Cheng Jie】／163
　　1. The China Miracle beyond Economy: Achieving Millennium Development Goals Ahead
　　　of Time／163
　　2. Inequality and Imbalance: From Consensus to Controversy／167
　　3. Institutional Barriers and Mobility Constraints: Deciding Future Inequality／175
　　4. Roadmap of Mobility-Adapted Equitable Development／179

Ⅳ　Topic Four: Promoting Labor Market Institution Development
12　Chapter 12　Finally Comes the Surveyed Unemployment Rate【Cai Fang】／185
　　1. Some Facts on and Misunderstandings of Unemployment Rate／186
　　2. Understanding the Chinese Labor Market by Splitting the Development Phenomenon
　　　and the Cyclical Phenomenon／192
　　3. Understanding the New Normal of the Chinese Economy from Current Status of Labor
　　　Market／201
　　4. Reform Dividend: Increasing Potential Growth by Exploiting Labor Supply／203
13　Chapter 13　Minimum Wages, Employment and Income Distribution【Jia Peng】／209
　　1. Introduction／209
　　2. Minimum Wages Regulation in China／211
　　3. Minimum Wages Effects on Employment／217
　　4. Minimum Wages Effects on Distribution／223
　　5. Conclusions／233
14　Chapter 14　Current Status, Problems and Policy Suggestions on China’s Industrial
　　　　　　　　Relations【Zhou Xiaoguang, Wang Meiyan】／236
　　1. Introduction／236
　　2. Current Status of China’s Industrial Relations／237
　　3. Changes in Industrial Relations and Its Causes／251
　　4. Future Trend and Policy Suggestions／267