Contents
Ⅰ General Report
1 Analysis on Chinese Real Estate Market in 2014 and Forecast in 2015
【Research Group of General Report】／001
1.The Characteristics of Real Estate Market in 2014／002
2.The Main Indicators of the Real Estate Market in 31 Provinces (Area, City) ／024
3.Problems of Real Estate Market／034
4.Trends of the Real Estate Market in 2015／038
5.Policy Suggestions／044
Ⅱ Reports about Land
2 Dynamic Monitoring Report of China’s Urban Land Price in 2014【National Urban Land
Price Monitoring Group of China Land Surveying and Planning Institute】／051
Abstract: In 2014, the growth rate of land price in major cities experienced a slight slowdown, while the commercial and the residential land price growth rate dropped significantly to 3.90% and 4.85%, respectively. On the contrary, the industrial land price increased more rapidly reaching 6.03%.At the mention of the three major economic zones, it shows that the rates of all-kind-use land price in Pearl River Delta situated at the top. The industrial land price in Bohai Sea Rim Region displayed a lower growth rate than that in Yangtze River Delta, while the performance was inverted for the rest uses. Amid a period of economic slowing growth and weakening property market in 2014, land supply was tightened and the purchase of land reduced greatly in the main monitoring cities. Under the combined influence of new industrial land policy, remodeling of“three olds”—old town, old factory, old village—and industrial upgrading policy, the growth rate of industrial land price in eastern part grew significantly.
In 2015, china’s economy in the “new normal” will hunk for a balance between steady growth and structure adjusting, meanwhile, the downward pressure on China’s economy still exists. The real estate market will continue to adjust, and the monetary policy is considered to be more flexible. As is affected by comprehensive function of above-mentioned factors, the land market will remain stable and the price would be heading toward a series of small fluctuations. However, because of the differences of macroeconomic policy and regional distinct supply-demand relationship, the differentiation between city land markets would be more obvious.
Keywords: Urban Land Price; Dynamic Monitoring; The Main Monitoring Cities; The Land Market
3 Beijing’s Land Market: Analysis in 2014 & Forecast in 2015【Liu Hongwei, Lu Shixiong】／069
Abstract: Beijing’s land market in 2014 was getting cold from hot at first, and appeared to be hot again at the end of the year. The turnover fell sharply, while the transaction price and the transaction amount had hit record high. Main driving forces of the land market in 2014 were the long-term short supply of the Beijing’s land market, the development enterprises return to First-tier cities, and the impact of rising land values and land policies. Beijing’s land market in 2015 is expected stable and on the rise under the background of the policy environment gradually easing.
Keywords: Beijing’s Land Market；Forces；Stable and Rise
Ⅲ Finance and Enterprises
4 Analysis of the Situation of Real Estate Investment and Finance in 2014 and the Trend of 2015
【Ding Xingqiao, Xu Rui】／082
Abstract: On the basis of the related data，this article analyses the status of the real estate investment and financing from different aspects in 2014, makes a judgment about the trend of the real estate investment and financing in 2015, and gives some suggestions. Real estate investment growth has declined rapidly, the financing channels have been expanded in 2014. The trend will continue in 2015.
Keywords: Real Estate; Investment and Finance
5 Analysis on Housing Credit in 2014 and Prospect for 2015【Lin Dong】／097
Abstract: The People’s Bank of China adjusted the housing credit policies in 2014, especially relaxed the policy for the demand of buying homes as their second one. Although, the real estate market volume declined significantly, the mortgage loan achieved a steady growth. Besides, the interest rate showed a trend from rise to down, and the asset quality declined slightly. Looking forward to 2015, the government may continue to relax the housing credit policies, and the incremental of mortgage loan will rise, with the interest rates continue to decline.
Keywords: Housing Credit; Real Estate；Demand of Buying Homes as Their Second One
6 Research of Real Estate Enterprises of 2014 & Trend For 2015【Lu Shixiong, Zheng Yunfeng】／105
Abstract: In the face of downward situation from commercial housing market in 2014, development problems of real estate enterprise are as follows: sales performance of most enterprises is lower than expected; growth of Real estate development investment to complete has fallen down; scale of land access of Real estate developers has fallen down; financing cost of Real estate enterprises increases significantly; operating pressure of the small scale has increased, part of the enterprise has been adjacent to the edge of collapse. In the expect of 2015, trend of investment of enterprises may will fall and channels of financing may appear differentiation; enterprises seek technological diversification change, and industry resources integration trend is obvious; Insurance companies cooperate with the enterprise in many ways; enterprises will focus on first and second class city in the next stage; enterprises with strong brand will try to invest the non-real estate business.
Keywords: Real Estate Enterprise; Sales Performance；Operating Pressure
Ⅳ Reports about Market
7 Housing Market in 2014 and its Forecast in 2015【Liu Lin, Ren Rongrong】／116
Abstract: The housing market in 2014 demonstrated a comprehensive adjustment. The growth rate of housing under-construction was lower than that of last year, and the amount of housing started decreased. The growth rate of residential investment fell to a record low since 1998. The floor space of housing sold was lower than that of last year. Housing price had fallen for eight months, while the price felling was stepper than those during the market adjustments in 2008 and 2011. However, the land price still rose quarter on quarter, and the growth rate was larger in the fourth quarter. We estimate that the amount of housing sold in 2015 would continue to decease, the growth rate of residential investment would be lower than that of last year, and the housing price would be stable with a slight decline.
Keywords: Housing Market；Housing
8 Characteristics in 2014 and Development Trend in 2015 of Commercial Real Estate in China
【Li Hongyu, Zuo Juanjuan】／128
Abstract: Relative to a warming trend of the development of commercial real estate in 2013 in china, the commercial real estate market has experienced a remarkable speed reduction in 2014, It mainly displays in the Total Investment growth, the Floor Space of Buildings Started growth and the relative Average Selling Price, the structural differences the office buildings market and the houses for business use market has been more significant, and the regional development is also unbalanced and high-concentration. In 2015 and the future, China’s commercial real estate market would present a new trend.
Keywords: Commercial Real Estate; Multi Form Operation
9 Analysis of the Situation of aged Real Estate in 2014 and the Trend of 2015
【Guo Rong, Zheng Duo, Ding Xingqiao and Fei Yunwei】／145
Abstract: The aged real estate entered the operational phase in 2014,the project from the development stage into the stage of practical operation. Aged real estate develop projects not only pursue the expansion of the scale, but also pay more attention to the operation of the project from government to the enterprises. The aged real estate is still in the initial development stage, and the pension ideas of Chinese people are particular. In additionally, the profit model of projects is not clear. Various issues seriously restricting the development of the aged real estate, such as inaccurate pre-positioning, large investment, difficult financing, long recovery period, lack of talent and so on. In the past year, the development of the aged real estate slowed down. It reminds the enterprises have entered and ready to enter the aged real estate, make decision more rational. Because the residential real estate is in a series of policies to suppress, the domestic real estate market appears weak. Many domestic developers are eager to find new interests, in order to achieve the transformation and upgrading of enterprises. Because of the real estate environment, the aging market background and the policy environment, aged real estate becomes the most popular areas in the market.
Keywords: Aged Real Estate; Aging; Transformation and Upgrading
10 2014-2015 Beijing Property Market Analysis【Jin Ruixin】／160
Abstract: In 2014，the real estate industry was experiencing a revolution, various macroeconomic indexes highs fallback, developers financing costs rise while the economic downturn, new home transactions remain in the doldrums. Second-hand housing market in the restrictions and credit tightening impact, turnover declined significantly in 2014, fell to its lowest level for nearly six years, just above 2008 economic crisis. Real estate is still as a pillar industry of China’s economy, affected by the macro-economic downward continuous pressure, started four bailout in 2014, policies to prop up the real estate market in the fourth quarter, getting better and better development. August 2014, most of the city began to relax its restrictions, policy direction began to turn, which opened the first round of bailout. The second round of bailout began from the“930”New Deal, the real estate stimulus the market, Second-hand housing used net signed usher small peak. The October 9th，National Fund and local policy easing stimulus policies began the third round of policy fine-tuning. After the October market turnover shot up, dropped slightly in November, prices climb steadily. At the end of year，heavy rate cuts policy is the fourth round of bailout policies, the market is expected to pick up again. In the fourth quarter, under the positive influence of“930”New Deal and rate cuts, price stability, creating a small peak at the end of the year. Due to falling sales market, the rental market has lost momentum continued to rise. Rental housing continued to increase, leasing demand remained stable, in 2014 rent increase in nearly five-year low.
Keywords: Four Bailout Policies; Turnover Declined Significantly; Price Change for Amount; Record Peak in Late Trading; Low Rent Increase
11 Status, Problems and Countermeasure of Residential Rental Market in Beijing
【Hu Jinghui, Song Jinze, Song Hui and Kong Dan】／172
Abstract: It has shown two features-volume increased and prices being stable-in the Residential Rental market of Beijing during the year of 2014. In the meantime, issues such as the soaring prices, the imbalance of supply and demand, and the lack of standardized regulation, remain. In order to better tackle these issues, REITs-liked model (based on and extended from Real Estate Investment Trusts) is raised up and discussed in this article, which could possibly be an effective solution.
Keywords: Residential Rental Market; REITs; REITs-like Model; Large-scale Operation
Ⅴ Management
12 The Retrospect of China’s Property Management in 2014 and Forecast in 2015
【Ye Tianquan, Ye Ning】／182
Abstract: The state of China’s property management in 2014 was mixed. The gratifying part is：the new rules of individual housing loans of People’s Bank of China brought hope to the flagging property market and property management; China’s Property Management Institution proposed the routine and schedule of transformation and upgrading of property management; Colorful life services group co., LTD listed in Hong Kong, which marked China’s property management companies began to gain access to the capital markets. The worrying part is：gas accidents, water logging disasters and square dancing issues often happened, which had already became focuses and should to be regularized by laws.
Keywords: Property Management；Transformation and Upgrading Regulary by Laws
13 An Analysis on the Status Quo in 2014 and Trend in 2015 of China Real Estate Intermediary
Industry【Cheng Minmin, Zhang Yangyang】／195
Abstract: In our country, the industry of real estate intermediary is mainly refers to the real estate appraisal and agency. In 2014, the industry of real estate appraisal was steady development. The group and operation of real estate appraisal were still sustained and rapidly growing. The government released the policy of charging appraisal fee. The role of market regulation had been strengthened as well. The industry of real estate agency was capricious, such as cooperating between online enterprise and offline, merger and acquisition during traditional enterprises, appearing a number of new patterns, inter-industry fusion was strengthened by corporations. All of these promoted the industry upgrading and transformation. We reviewed some important events on the development of the industry of real estate appraisal and agency in 2014, and base on the actual situation of the industry of real estate appraisal and agency, briefly analyzed the trend of these two industries in 2015.
Keywords: Real Estate Appraisal；Real Estate Agency
Ⅵ Regions
14 Guangzhou Property Market：Review of 2014 and Prospect to 2015
【Liao Junping, Tian Yaling, Zhu Jialei and Li Xiaojie】／208
Abstract: The property market in Guangzhou is rather smoother in 2014, comparing with that in 2013. High inventories were the common features shared by the markets of housing, commercial and office buildings. High inventory of housing is due to the low transaction volume, while high inventories of commercial and office buildings were contributed by the continuously developments. After the adjustment in 2014, the structure of the economy will be changed gradually, and the property market will face to more opportunities together with more challenges. The property market in Guangzhou will also do farewell to high speed developing.
Keywords: Guangzhou；Property Market；High Inventory
15 Commentary on Shenzhen’s Real Estate Market in 2014 and Forecasts of 2015
【Song Botong，Huang Zisong，Wu Shiyou，Li Yaning，Wang Yong，
Xu Chao，Zhang Danhui and Zhang Hui】／229
Abstract: Shenzhen’s real estate market began to thrive both the price and volume after a period of downturn in 2014 and had a boom at the end of the year. Real estate development and investment have climbed to a new height. As to the residential market，the price raised steadily while the volume decreased from a high point. The volume increased sharply with partly real estate policy deregulation in the fourth quarter. As to office building，the vacancy rate increased markedly，and the average price fluctuated within a narrow range，while the rent shocked significantly. As to commercial building，the vacancy rate was still in the same level as before. The average price declined obviously，the rent fell slightly. The overall annual land supply rebound phenomenon occurs again，only one case of residential land，while the supply and demand of commercial land has a sharp growth，and land price of different types differed from each other.
Looking ahead to 2015，Shenzhen’s economic growth is slowing down，but prospects will still bright，real estate support will play a vital role in economic growth. Under the new phenomenon，the effects of the different kind of real estate police will overlay，the housing market rebound phenomenon will be further revealed. Construction of the subway and peripheral channels can effectively promote regional economic development in the suburban，Similarly，the former sea Shekou FTA and North Station CBD become the focus of Shenzhen. Rural collective land will be allowed to be used by private market，and the market will be widened to the field of housing and pension.
Keywords: Shenzhen；Real Estate Market；Real Estate Policy；FTZ
16 The Situation of Chongqing Real Estate Market in 2014 and the Tendency of 2015
【Chen Deqiang, Zhang Qianman, Jiang Chengwei and He Ling】／245
Abstract: The thesis mainly reviewed the situation of Chongqing real estate market in 2014, and analyzed the main factors affecting the Chongqing real estate market in 2014. Besides, the thesis forecasted the trends of the Chongqing real estate market in 2015 according to the macro and micro environmental conditions.
Keywords: Chongqing; The Real Estate Market
17 The Real Estate Market of Zhengzhou City: Review of 2014 and Prospect for 2015
【Zhang Hongxing】／265
Abstract: Driven by economy growth and city development, the real estate market of Zhengzhou city ran steadily in 2014. The real estate investment growth rate remained stable, the product structure was more coordinated, the market prices rose within a small scale, the second-hand housing transaction was active. In the year of 2015, the real estate market of Zhengzhou city is expected to continue its trend in 2014.
Keywords: Zhengzhou City；The Real Estate；Rise Within a Small Scale
Ⅶ International Experiences
18 From Crisis to Recovery: Implications of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis to China’s
Real Estate in 2015【Kruti R.Lehenbauer, Chen Bei】／276
Abstract: The subprime mortgage lending crisis started in the United States in 2006, spiraling out of control in 2007, leading to a financial breakdown of banks and financial systems worldwide by 2008. This global event is often referred to as the “Housing Bubble” that burst (see, Greenspan. In the past seven years, there has been some noticeable improvement in the financial situation and it remains to be seen if any of the measures taken to plug the financial drain will have longer term, and more problematic implications. However, at the moment, we are seeing a reasonable recovery in the financial sector. This paper attempts to explore the measures that appear to have had a positive role in the economic recovery of the real estate market and related institutions in the United States and worldwide. More importantly, we attempt to identify what such measures would imply for the Real Estate market in China. In the context of the global economy, China is heavily impacted by economic and financial decision-making of the United States due to the ownership of a large pool of dollars and other short-term as well as long-term investments by global entities in the manufacturing and commercial aspects of the Chinese economy.
Keywords: Subprime Mortgage；Subprime Mortgage；Crisis；US Federal Reserve；Board Recovery
19 The Enlightenment of South Korean Real Estate Market on the Policy of China
【Sun Zaiying, Li Qiling and Li Jingguo】／296
Abstract: In the process of urbanization，economic growth and real estate development, the South Korean government faces several challenges, such as the laws and regulations restricted agricultural land usage conversion，the reasonable division of the main responsibility of real estate development，the coordination of the subject relationship，the distribution of exploiting dividend and so on. To solve the problems generated in urbanization and real estate development, the South Korean government gradually released population limitation and persuasion policy in mega cities, “development restricted district” policy aim to control the land supply of mega cities, land and housing policies tend to mass construction of apartment buildings, “Land district consolidation” policy, housing price limitation and public operated land development policy, real estate tax and so on, maybe there is inspiration to China.
Keywords: South Korean；Real Estate Market
Ⅷ Hot Topics
20 Impacts of Real Estate Registration to the Real Estate Market【Zhang Xiling】／308
Abstract: The long-waited Provisional Regulations on Real Estate Registrationimplemented formally on March 1st, 2015. A unified system of registration agency, registration book, registration evidence and information platform will undoubtedly have profound impacts on the national real estate market. Under this background, discussion about the impacts of real estate registration on the real estate market spread all over China. The evolution history of the real estate registration system is first reviewed in this paper, and then it introduces the main modes of the real estate registration system used in foreign countries. Next, it analyzes the potential impacts of the unified real estate registration on the real estate market in 2015, and finally put forward several countermeasures to actively guide the real estate market developing healthily.
Keywords: Real Estate Registration；Real Estate Market
21 Prospect of the real estate market development under the economic new normal
【Han Guodong】／322
Abstract: Under the Chinese economy new normal, china’s real estate market has entered a state of new normal. This paper summarizes the six main characteristics of the new normal development of the real estate market, discuss how to adapt to real estate market new normal from the market point of view, and put through reform and innovation to lead the new normal of the real estate market development. It aim to support macroeconomic stability by micro dynamic, expand demand by supply innovation, achieve optimization of aggregate equilibrium by structure adjustment, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Keywords: The Economic New Normal；The Real Estate Market
22 The Internet+Real Estate: from the Hug to Subversion【Yuan Yizheng, Cao Yu】／332
Annual Report on the Development of China’s Real Estate No.12 (2015) carries on the objective, fair, scientific and neutral purposes and principles, traces the latest information of China’s real estate market and analyzes deeply its hot issues, actively makes countermeasures and strategies and forecasts the developing trends in 2015. There are 8 parts in this book, which are the general report, reports on land, reports on finance and business, reports on market, reports on management, reports on the regional markets, reports on the international markets and reports on hot issues. The general report analyzes overall the developing trend of the real estate industry and the real estate market, while the rest reports respectively make deep analysis of the secondary real estate markets, regional markets and hot issues.
In 2014, there was a substantial falling down in China’s real estate market and the housing prices in many large and medium-sized cities shown an apparent decrease trend compared with 2013. However, form the perspective of the price trend of the national real estate, the annual real estate transaction price in 2014 was 6323 Yuan, still 1.4% higher than that in 2013. Sales area of the real estate was 1206.49 million square meters, 7.6% lower over the previous year with an obvious cold sale. The real estate sale area in 2014 was 621.69 million square meters, an increase of 128.74 million square meters compared with the end of 2013, but it remained high inventories. The housing rental market continued become colder, the annual rent index dropped 2.2% with a nearly 50% decline. The real estate investment growth rate decreased significantly, and the national real estate development investment was 9.5036 trillion Yuan, increasing 10.5% over the previous year in the name but with growth rate 9.3% lower than that in 2013. The real estate enterprises face great difficulties in funding, and the available funds in 2014 were 12.1991 trillion Yuan, 0.1% lower than that in the previous year. The real estate enterprises obviously are not confident, and the new housing construction area in 2014 was 1795.92 million square meters, 10.7% lower over the previous year. Enterprises declined their land purchasing enthusiasm, and the land acquisition area in 2014 was 333.83 million square meters, 14.0% lower over the previous year. However, the land transaction price of the national real estate enterprises in 2014 was 3002 Yuan per square meter, 446 Yuan per square meter higher compared with that in 2013. In the major monitoring cities, prices of comprehensive use land, business and services use land, housing use land and industrial use land increased relatively over the previous year, showing a moderate upward trend. In 2014, land prices in most cities fluctuated in a steady state, and the number of cities with higher land price reduced compared with the previous year. The total amount of construction land supply tightened substantially, and the commercial, residential and industrial supply area of each use land has been reduced. The national macro-control policies like the “one size fits all” type has gradually fade out, regulation measures tended to be more market-oriented, and the central government’s control policies focused more on long-term and stability.
Looking to 2015, the Chinese economy is in a stage with growth rate shifting, structural adjustment and previous policies digestion overlaid. The economy is shifting from high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth, with an estimated annual growth rate at 7%, and it will face a long process of transition and adjustment. Faced with the new normal of macroeconomic development, a prudent monetary policy will continue to be implemented to optimize the liquidity orientation and structure, and it will implement the “targeted RRR cuts” and its related measures. The money supply will continue the relatively loose trend of the end of 2014. As the real estate market differentiates significantly, the central government will continue to take the principles that different policies in different regions or cities, part of the regulation power will be decentralized to the local governments. Under the framework of the national policies, the local governments will make more refined and flexible policies in favor of the real estate market development without violating any principle. Policies on fiscal, financial, tax and others will also increase supporting efforts to the real estate market. Specifically, the real estate investment in 2015 will continue to differentiate, most of which will be invested in the first-tier cities and part of the second-tier cities; according to the new construction area and the inventory area in recent 3 years, it is sure that the supply is adequate in 2015 in the real estate market; support policies of the central and local governments on the real estate market as well as the corresponding fiscal and monetary policies will further promote the improvement-type of housing consumption, and the housing demand in 2015 will grow significantly. From a comprehensive perspective, it is very probable that the housing price in 2015 will maintain grow at a low rate, but the regional differentiation will be very obvious. The housing price in the first-tier cities with high population aggregation capacity and some of the second-tier cities will go upward, while the housing prices in the rest second-tier cities with low population aggregation capacity and the third-tier, forth-tier cities will continue the falling down trend.
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