Contents

Ⅰ　General Report

1　Maintaining the Basic State of Overall Stability but Challenges Increasing【Sun Li】／001

Abstract: In 2014, the Central Asian countries maintained the basic state of overall stability, but some new issues have made impact on this region such as Ukraine crisis, Russia’s economic recession, price decline of bulk commodities, US dollar appreciation and depression of major export markets. The Central Asian countries that stood up for political stability as their major target, continued to readjust economic policies to cope with the risk of descending economies while to strengthen relations with regional big powers and the world, to improve relations with neighboring countries taking effective measures to threads and challenges of security from outside the country.

Keywords: Central Asia; Overall Situation; The Year of 2014

Ⅱ　Hot Issues

2　Afghan Security Situation and Its Influence to Central Asia after US Troops Withdrawal from

　　Afghanistan【Wang Xiaoquan】／017

Abstract: After the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, security affairs was overtaken by Afghan government troops which gradually won the initiative and turned the tables on the attackers, demonstrating their independent war power in fights with Taliban armed forces. The new Afghan Government led by Ashraf Ghani showed stronger ability to the situation control and stability, the Afghan national conciliation started to proceed. Meanwhile, the terrorist and extremist forces were still strong, it was uncertain to the Afghan situation of security. In order to cope with security threads from Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have taken safe precaution measures, with management of Afghan security issues made by international efforts from China, Pakistan and The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Afghan security issue will not expand on a large scale in short terms.

Keywords: US; Afghanistan; Central Asia; Security; Diplomacy

3　Analysis of Economic Situation in Central Asian Countries【Wang Haiyan】／032

Abstract: In 2014, influenced by the external factors of the world’s energy price decline, Ukraine crisis and international sanctions against Russia, the economic development in Central Asia was fluctuant. The growth of GNP was declined in the region. Trade, investment, financial and tertiary industry were fluctuated and currency was devaluated by certain margins in Central Asian countries. Looking forward to the future, the pressure of economic downturn was growing in Central Asian countries and the growth rate which kept by those countries for years would be speeded down. All countries were taking measures to cope with potential crises and they will need time to change the situation.

Keywords: Five Countries of Central Asia; Economic Development; Evaluation; Prospect

4　CICA and Central Asian Countries【Zhao Changqing】／055

Abstract: Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) is a forum to safeguard security in Asia as its principal aim. The Initiative was put forward by Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev, responded and participated by Central Asian countries. The fourth CICA Summit 2014 was held in Shanghai, China which pushed the development of CICA to come into a new stage. “The Asian Security Theory” put forward in this Summit was significant and instructive to the solutions of security issues among Asian countries. In this Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward many proposals which were constructive and welcomed by participants including those from the Central Asian countries. China and Central Asian countries should play key roles in implementation of the Shanghai Declaration.

Keywords: CICA; CICA Summit; Central Asian Countries; Shanghai Declaration; Asian Security Theory

5　Impact of Ukraine Crisis on the Region of Central Asia【Ding Xiaoxing】／065

Abstract: Ukraine crisis happened in 2014 was one of the most important international issues which made great impact on the international pattern, regional situation and relations between the big powers. The region of Central Asian and Ukraine, situated in the same area of Europe and Asia, have close relations. The Ukraine crisis has exercised direct influence over the region of Central Asia, particularly to the Russian economic crisis which led to a perceptible decline of economic development in Central Asian countries. The Ukraine crisis has deteriorated the relations between Russia and the West. Although Central Asian countries stood neutral in Ukraine issue and wouldn’t like to offend any party, this would make “their bread buttered on both sides” more difficult of the multilateral diplomacy between Russia and the West by the Central Asian countries. Through the Ukraine crisis, the Central Asian countries were aware that “the color revolution” would not only overthrow their regime, toppled down their governments but split up their countries and would even lead to a war. All countries would draw lessons from this issue and focus on maintaining social and political stability.

Keywords: Ukraine Crisis; Central Asia; Geopolitics; Economy

Ⅲ　Special Reports

6　The Silk Road Economic Belt and Stable Development in Central Asia【Sun Zhuangzhi】／075

Abstract: The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt proposed by China has a road design from the near to the distance fanning out from point to area, which will be able to benefit Central Asian countries of China’s neighboring region. The economies of Central Asian countries have gradually bounced back as they actively boosted economic cooperation with the outside world and showed momentum of fast growth in recent years. But the difficulties existed in five Central Asian countries have not yet solved, the Ukraine crisis has brought new changes to the international relations in the region of Europe and Asia. There was no enough space for maneuvers of Central Asian countries that wished to keep balance between the West and Russia. The Central Asian countries need a brand-new model of regional cooperation under this special situation to avoid interference from geopolitical factors, thus the Silk Road Economic Belt will comply with the realistic requirement of the Central Asian countries and be able to meet the case of economic development in the region of Central Asia.

Keywords: Silk Road Economic Belt; Central Asia; Stability; Development

7　Social and Economic Development in Central Asia and Transcaucasia Countries Based

　　on Data Analysis【Xiao Bin】／085

Abstract: In combination with the national competiveness of the world, data of the country’s democratic rule, feedback of national logistic performance, this report analyzed the level of social and economic development in Central Asian and Outer Caucasoid countries. In 2014, the Central Asian countries maintained a better momentum for the development in social and economic fields. The national competiveness for each country was raised respectively, the level of state’s democratic rule had a tendency for good development and the ability of economic cooperation with foreign countries were enhanced, but the Central Asian countries still have some problems at home hard to be solved in a short term. Of them, obviously visible were corruption, financial market access, and shortages of infrastructure, illogical tax system, lack of job training for laborers and low efficiency of bureaucracy as well as other uncertain factors. The social and economic development in Central Asian countries would face more challenges in 2015.

Keywords: Central Asia and Outer Caucasia; Society and Economy; Development

8　Relations between Central Asian Countries【Zhao Huirong】／100

Abstract: Relations between Central Asian countries are generally complicated as a whole. This report analyzed the basic status of bilateral relations between Central Asian countries including the development course of interrelations, interest points of cooperation and major problems existed. On this basis, the report put forward a couple of points of views to the factors which may influence over the relations between Central Asian countries and the development trend of bilateral relations between these countries.

Keywords: Central Asian Countries; Bilateral Relations

9　Review of New Policy Changes from State Messages of Leaders of the Central Asian

　　Countries【Bao Yi】／111

Abstract: In recent years, leaders of Central Asian countries put forward their countries’ middle or long-term development strategies in the form of State Message or Government Report. These strategic plans proposed had similar background when the world economy and oil prices appeared to the declining tendency, all countries hope that they could further carry out political and economic reforms, optimize industrial structures, play upper-hand of traditional industries, and replace imports through the local production and increasing competition of home-made products. In addition to this, the Central Asian countries place high hope on the construction of transport infrastructure and rapid development of modern logistics. They hope that the development of transport and logistics will expand the space of economic development.

Keywords: State Message; Social Economy; Social Politics

10　Analysis on Development Path of Modernization in Uzbekistan【Zhang Danhua】／130

Abstract: This report, taking Uzbekistan model as the theoretical basis, analyzed development path for realization of modernization in Uzbekistan from the target of value, political system and economic society. The report proposed that all people should be delivered living conditions of human dignity and building a modern and democratic country that recognized by the international society will become the target of value for development model in Uzbekistan. The State power and management of democratization has provided assurance to realize the aims of modernization. Economic liberalization and pluralism and building civil society will become dependence on the path to realize the aims of modernization.

Keywords: Uzbekistan; Development Path

Ⅳ　Central Asia and the World

11　Initiatives by Central Asian Countries for International Situation【Zhang Ning】／140

Abstract: Up to now from 2014, the stability and development of the Central Asian Region faced new opportunity and challenges, influenced by the weakening demand of Europe, Ukraine crisis, the turmoil in the Middle East and Russia’s regional integration as well as external factors for construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt actively promoted by China. The counter-measures by the Central Asian countries include taking active financial policy, in an effort to readjust economic structure, complete religious management, strike religious extremists,  and continuously carry out integration with Russia as well as open doors to the investment from China.

Keywords: Central Asian Countries; International Crisis; Counter-measures

12　Impact on the Central Asian Countries by “Islam State” Organization【Wang Xianju】／150

Abstract: ISIS,—the extremist organization which invaded northern part of Iraq and some Syrian territories, when the organization carried out military operations in the Middle East, it has also claimed that it would open the second front in the Central Asian Region. Is this a smokescreen？or it really could be. This report holds that the influence of ISIS organization really existed in the Central Asian countries, but the possibility of taking large-scale military operations or sabotage by the organization as they did in Iraq and Syria is only a remote in the region of Central Asia in a foreseeable future.

Keywords: Central Asia; Islam State; Influence

13　Response and Think Through Ukraine Crisis by Central Asian Countries【Liang Qiang】／160

Abstract: The response by the Central Asian countries to Ukraine crisis was restraint and cautious. This was closely related to the worries to the stability at home and trying hard to maintain good relations with global players outside the region, reflecting their dilemma. The influence of crisis to the course of transformation in the Central Asian countries is various and each country began to think and put forward some new points of views to modern State administration in the course of transformation, building effective new regional security framework and reflection to the policy of Putin’s European-Asian alliance. All this inspired China to its policy to the Central Asia.

Keywords: Ukraine crisis; Central Asia; Response; Thinking

14　Analysis and Comments on Russia’s Policy on Central Asia for 2014【Xue Fuqi】／171

Abstract: Russia’s policy on the Central Asia for 2014 was worked out under the three backgrounds of speeding up the process of regional economic integration for Europe and Asia, US troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and Ukraine crisis. The signing of EAEU indicated that the process of Europe-Asia regional economic integration led by Russia has made preliminary achievement and great headways. The changes of security situation in Afghanistan directly influenced the security interests of Russia and Central Asian Region. Under the background of Ukraine crisis, the slowdown of Russia’s economy has made unfavorable impact on Central Asian countries and the process of integration. Russian Government using existing bilateral and multilateral mechanism has gone into overdrive to its cooperation with Central Asian countries in political, economic and military sectors.

Keywords: Russia; Policy on Central Asia; Integration; Economy and Security Cooperation

15　Relations of Turkey with Kazakhstan【Xu Wenhong】／180

Abstract: Turkey and Kazakhstan are two of the only six countries speaking Turkic language in the world. In order to strengthen unity and collaboration between Turkic countries, Turkey gave strong support to the new appearing Kazakhstan and other Turkic countries after the breakup of the Soviet Union and strengthened links with those countries. The report elaborated the development of relations between the two countries in many sectors as history, economy and trade as well as military.

Keywords: Turkey; Kazakhstan; Turkic Language; Turk

16　Energy Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan under the EAEU Framework

　　【Wang Haiyan】／189

Abstract: Russia has great interest of energy in Central Asian Region. Involving energy development in Central Asia and controlling energy exports from these countries are main method of Russia’s energy strategy in Central Asia. Kazakhstan as an exporter and transit state with rich oil and gas resources in Central Asia seemed rather important to Russia. The political relations between Russia and Kazakhstan are stable and their economic and trade links are close, the energy cooperation has become the most important part for the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. Now, Russia and Kazakhstan have cooperation in energy exploitation, pipeline transport and trade of oil and gas. The contradictions in the energy cooperation between the two countries under the EAEU framework appeared to be combed out. Although the proportion of Russian enterprises in upper reaches of oil and gas production is not high, the Russians still played a leading role in Kazakhstan to oil and gas exports.

Keywords: EAEU; Russia; Kazakhstan; Energy Cooperation

Ⅴ　Sino-Central Asian Relations

17　Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and Development Strategy of Central Asian

　　Countries【Wu Hongwei】／202

Abstract: Establishment of the Silk Road Economic Belt with joint efforts is a great strategic solution proposed by Chinese leaders after meticulous deliberation made on the new trend and characters of the global political and economic situation. This indicates that the neighboring countries have become priority and important part in China’s diplomacy. It is differed from the ancient Silk Road along which the neighboring countries and regions were labeled as the main trade channels; in the establishment of the new Silk Road Economic Belt the Central Asian countries could play the most important role. If taking the diversion from the planned economy to market economy as the first opportunity for development after the independence of the Central Asian countries, the proposal of the strategic blueprint of the Silk Road Economic Belt will provide a second scarce opportunity for development with Central Asian countries after their independence. China will, in the framework of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, create with the Central Asian countries a community of common fate and interests with advanced economy, brisk market, rich nation and strong people who are living and working in peace.

Keywords: Silk Road Economic Belt; Central Asian Countries; Strategy; Connection

18　The Financial Cooperation between China and Uzbekistan under the Framework of Silk Road

　　Economic Belt【Zhu Surong】／214

Abstract: Uzbekistan is a bi-inland country and its geographic position is extremely important and a inherent country for construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Uzbekistan which carried out multilateral diplomatic policies has provided good opportunities for financial cooperation between China and Uzbekistan. The political situation in Uzbekistan was kept stable for a long term and this laid a solid foundation for financial cooperation between China and Uzbekistan. The country has a stable financial system and its fund collection was in great demand which is favorable to the financial cooperation between China and Uzbekistan. The political and economic cooperation between the two countries remained the best period in history and the potential space for future development was huge. As the core region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has the important position in the financial cooperation between China and Uzbekistan and is likely to become the forerunner and experimental zone.

Keywords: Silk Road Economic Belt; China; Uzbekistan; Financial Cooperation

19　The Cultural and Educational Cooperation between China and Central Asian Countries:

　　Newly Built Platform and Solidly Push Forward【Li Ziguo】／230

Abstract: With launching construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the cultural and educational exchanges between China and Central Asian countries became frequent. The core of the Silk Road spirit comprised by cooperation, pardon, learning from each other and win-win has been widely recognized. In the region of Central Asia, the China threat theory has been replaced by the China opportunity theory. But the short slab seems to be obviously existed in the cultural and educational exchanges. China’s lack of advanced education institutions in Central Asian countries was yet to be changed and cooperation in culture industry had no substantial progress. The cultural and educational exchanges between the two countries should focus on the actual effects increasing involvement of common people.

Keywords: Central Asia; Cultural and Educational Cooperation; Silk Road; Economic Belt

Ⅵ　Country Reviews

20　Kazakhstan【Wang Cong】／240

Abstract: Since 2014, the overall situation of Kazakhstan has been stable. The government mechanism and high level personnel have witnessed bigger changes. But the problem of successor has been watered down, because Mr. Nazarbayev clearly stated that he would continue to run president in 2015. In 2014, influenced by the decline of energy prices in the world market and Russia’s economic slowdown, Kazakhstan faced economic crisis which scarcely appeared in recent years, and each of the economic indicators has been lowered. Standing up to the economic recession, the Kazakhstani Government has flagged a new economic policy of “Sunny Road” which was regarded as counter measures to the crisis and it was trying to turn around the economic depression. In 2014, the policy of balance between the big powers by Kazakhstan has been accomplished with ease and signing of the EAEU treaties with Russia and Belarus has become the most important issue in its activities of foreign affairs. Though the prospect of the development for EAEU was likely to be twisted, as the highest-level integration organization in the area of Commonwealth of Independent States, the EAEU would make great impact on the decision-making for policies in home and foreign affairs.

Keywords: Kazakhstan; Politics; Economy; Situation; Evaluation

21　Kyrgyzstan【Xu Haiyan】／251

Abstract: In 2014, Kyrgyzstan, on the basis of former political reforms, mainly focused on anti-corruption in system, strengthening system of accountability, restoring traditional value, reforming management system of household registration. Although some problems were still existed that the economic structure needs to be optimized and the economic interdependency was high, Kyrgyzstan as a country of market economy with open-door and free market policy in the Central Asian region has entered into the rank of middle income countries. Under the circumstances to insure the sustainable economic growth, the government began to greatly promote tourism on which would feedback benefits of economic development to the society. The government paid close attention to the well-being of the people and improve people’s livelyhood so as to maintain a harmonious and stable society. In the diplomatic field, a pragmatic and diversified diplomatic style was formed that was taking economic construction as the central task to provide good external environment for the country’s development.

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan; Politics; Economy; Society; Diplomacy

22　Tajikistan【Zhang Hao】／264

Abstract: In 2014, the overall political situation in Tajikistan was maintained stable. The parliamentary election for 2015 was well prepared, the controlling of social stability was strengthened and the conflicts in parts of areas have been solved. In the economic field, influenced by the economic slowdown at home, the country’s GDP was increased by 6.7%, the growth rate was slower compared with the same period in previous year. In the diplomatic field, the relation between China and Tajikistan has entered into the period of fast development, high-level reciprocal visits were frequent and there was a sign of thaw ties between Ukraine and Tajikistan. The border conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan became frequent which have made certain casualties.

Keywords: Tajikistan; Parliamentary Election; Economic Growth; Bilateral Relations

23　Turkmenistan【Zhao Zhen】／278

Abstract: In 2014, Turkmenistan maintained political and social stability. President Berdymukhammedov has made high-level personnel changes and rectified administration. Constitution reform was pushed forward to meet the requirements of political, economic and social transformation in Turkmenistan. The local elections have accomplished successfully and a third party—the Agricultural Party was found. The government was active to fight corruption, improve the livelihood of the people and maintain social stability. Under the deteriorated security situation with its neighbor Afghanistan, Turkmenistan has strengthened border management to safeguard national security. In the economic field, Turkmenistan continued to keep high growth rate in 2014. The government developed energy industry on a large scale, boosted energy exports. The privatization of economy and general adoption of market principle have been stepped up. In the field of foreign relations, Turkmenistan continued to carry out foreign policy of permanent neutrality in 2014. It was keeping balanced relations with China, Europe, Russia and the United States and actively developed cooperation with neighboring countries to make itself a junction of interconnections in the region. Meanwhile, the government relied on UN and international multilateral mechanism to take part in the international affairs and disseminate its own stand.

Keywords: Turkmenistan; Politics; Economy; Diplomacy; The Year of 2014

24　Uzbekistan【Wang Mingchang】／295

Abstract: In 2014, elections for Uzbek Parliament and Government have been held without a hitch. Kalimov continued to be elected as President. Influenced by the continuous fermentation of Ukraine crisis, Uzbekistan kept adjusting foreign policies to balance its relations with big powers so as to improve diplomatic environment with neighboring countries. Influenced by the price fluctuation of raw materials in the world market and deteriorated Russian economy, Uzbekistan faced a great challenge for its future economic situation. The international terrorism and extremism in the Middle East and Afghanistan infiltrated into the Central Asia and threats to the security situation of Uzbekistan became growing obviously.

Keywords: Uzbekistan; Politics; Economy; Diplomacy; Security

25　Summary of Regional Situation in Transcaucasia for 2014【Lyu Ping】／307

Abstract: In 2014, Georgia witnessed a split up of its ruling coalition—Dream of Georgia and Armenia has got changes of its government, but the main political situation for the two countries remained unaffected. The political situation in Azerbaijan continued to be stable. Because of close connections with Russian economy, Ukraine crisis, Western sanctions against Russia and drop of ruble have made certain impact on Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Slumped oil prices in the world market have made great impact on Azerbaijan depending heavily on petroleum economy. In diplomatic field, the three countries followed the established diplomatic guidelines and have made different responses to the Ukraine issue from their own national conditions trying to keep balance between Russia and the West.

Keywords: Transcaucasia; Georgia; Armenia; Azerbaijan; Politics; Economy; Diplomacy

26　Memorabilia for 2014／320