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Annual Development Report on World Energy (2020)

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By:Huang Xiaoyong, Wang Nengquan, Wang Wei

Publisher:Social Sciences Academic Press

ISBN:978-7-5201-7269-1

Publication Date:2020-10-27

Language:Chinese

Paper book:US $70.00
Ebook:US $
Paper Book& Ebook:US $
1743 1000

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About the author(s):

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2019 is equally uneasy for developed and developing countries especially in energy sector.The global economic growth rate,which was 3.7% in 2018,being dragged by declines of advanced and emerging economies decreased by 0.8% in 2019.
The slowdown in world economic growth and Sino-US trade frictions have resulted a decline in global oil demand,which then has exerted downward pressure on oil prices.Under this circumstance,the OPEC+cut agreement played the key role in supporting oil prices and the global oil supply basically remained the same as in previous year.The price in 2019 appears rise at first and then fell.Frequent geopolitical events and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have sparked market worry about the safety of oil supply.The drastic fluctuations in international crude oil prices have led to a short-term panic rise and put energy security once again one of the biggest global concerns.
The world gas market however appeared its stability.In consumption,the growth rate in the North American and Asian markets slowed down while in the European market turned to positive from negative.In production,Eurasian sector increased slightly over the same period in previous years.In prices,natural gas in major markets have all fallen,and prices in Eurasian market have dropped to the lowest in the most recent decade.It could be predicted that in 2020 the gas market environment will be even more complicated with the further involvement of demand-side influencing factors.
In 2019,the world coal market continued its cyclical recovery and upward trend.Both production and consumption are increased,coal prices fell slightly,and international coal trade remained active,yet with a slightly weakening driver of growth and a growing trend of downward adjustment.
The power industry,which is closely related to coal,has undergone reforms in various countries around the world in recent years.Global power generation growth is mainly from developing economies with Asian-Pacific countries contributing the largest proportion and Middle East and African nations showing their big potentials.In generation types,renewable energy represented by wind and solar maintained fast growth.It is also noteworthy that global deployment of hydrogen energy is speeding up,and the hydrogen industry has entered a new phase of development in accordance with energy development laws and influencing variables.
The sudden COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 dealt a disastrous blow to world economy with various signs indicating that the pandemic will be detrimental to the oil production and prices stability and the supply and demand balance in the upcoming years.The Corona virus epidemic will weaken the Asian gas market and the high stocks in Europe and other factors will make unclear prospects of global natural gas market too.The world coal market however would maintain a momentum of cyclic recovery,with both increasing output and consumption.Power industry will also grow at a slower pace.Compared with traditional energies,solar and wind energy are more efficient and cost-effective.In 2020,renewable energies will further lower their costs and the cross-market and cross-technology integration will accelerate.
In China,energy consumption has maintained and is expected to maintain a certain growth.Structurally,fossil energy will still be the main body of energy consumption.Consumption in natural gas,oil,hydropower,nuclear power,and wind power are all going up except for coal.Containing opportunities and challenges,the complicated and protracted energy transformation reform in China is still quite difficult.Therefore,in the development strategy,national energy security should dominate the energy policy as always,which would continue the dual control module over the total quantity and intensity of energy consumption.The policy should also prioritize the direction as developing clean and low-carbon energy to promote the transformation of economic development path and living consumption pattern,and to promote the diversification,cleanliness and efficiency of energy production and consumption.