Subtitle:
By:Ying Fu, Feng Ni, Zheng Yuan
Publisher:Social Sciences Academic Press
ISBN:978-7-5201-8895-1
Publication Date:2021-09-22
Language:Chinese
2020 promises to be an extraordinary year for the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted social conflicts in the United States,which has further exacerbated the internal disorder and diplomatic rigidity of the U.S. government. Economic crisis,racial conflict and political polarization are deeply affecting the course of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The weak response to the pandemic and the rare post-election chaos in the U.S. have laid bare the flaws in the design and operation of the U.S. political system.
The Real economy and financial markets in the U.S. entered recession after a precipitous decline in the first two quarters because of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Then,due to lack of momentum,it entered the recovery stage. In 2020,the U.S. government’s economic policies include anti-epidemic policy,expansionary fiscal policy and loose monetary policy,and the core of the policy is to strike a balance between epidemic prevention and control and economic restart. Looking ahead to 2021,under the current policy framework of the U.S.,if the epidemic can be effectively controlled,the U.S. economy will show a significant recovery.
Political polarization and partisanship have intensified in the United States against the backdrop of the COVID-19 outbreak. In 2020,The United States is more politically polarized than it has been since the Civil War. Trump’s actions have sent shockwaves through American politics and society,making the 2020 election a deeply divisive one. In order to win the election,the Democratic and Republican parties mobilized people to vote and blamed each other for the disastrous consequences for the country. Voter participation in the election was at an all-time high,and the closeness of the race highlighted the tearing of American society. Although the election was ultimately won by Democratic candidate Joe Biden,COVID-19 has exacerbated economic recession and social tensions in the United States. The resolution of America’s domestic crisis will be a long and unstable process. The intertwining and enduring dilemmas of economic inequality,ethnic conflict and values will pose enormous challenges for Biden in office.
There are a series of ripple effects in American society. Due to the massive social movement triggered by the COVID-19 epidemic and the “Freud Event”,political polarization,rich and poor gap,social inequality,racial conflict,police and people conflict,cultural identity conflict,etc.,have worsened in the U.S. election year,falling into a vicious cycle of “epidemic-economic recession-protests and riots-worsening epidemic”. This is a concentrated manifestation of the long-term structural contradictions in American society,which have been intensively exploded in the 2020 presidential election. The American society will be deeply affected by the political legacy of Trumpism for a period of time,and the conflicts and tears in the American society will continue to worsen and reflect on the American politics,plunging it into a high degree of uncertainty.
With the spread of COVID-19 and the Trump administration’s passive response,U.S. diplomacy is increasingly constrained. The Trump administration continues to promote its global strategy. At the regional level,it still focuses on Asia-Pacific,Europe and the Middle East,with diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East as highlights. On major issues,the Trump administration is committed to promoting nuclear nonproliferation,withdrawing from the war on terror and promoting what it calls democracy and human rights. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the U.S. diplomatic dilemma. On the surface,the Trump administration’s diplomatic dilemma is caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,but a deeper analysis shows that the dilemma is due to Trumpism. In the future,the Biden administration will reverse the Policies of the Trump era to some extent,but it is unlikely that there will be any positive breakthroughs in great power relations.
In 2020,the Trump administration strongly promoted military transformation and upgrading driven by competition among major powers. Under the overlapping influence of multiple factors,including the spread of COVID-19,intensified strategic game between major countries and the U.S. presidential election,the Trump administration is focusing more on “great power competition,” while minimizing the negative impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. military,accelerating the adjustment of regional strategy and military deployment,strengthening the network of global alliance partners,innovating combat theory,promoting the development of intelligent,miniaturized and unmanned weapons and equipment so as to maintain our military competitive edge against major powers and maintain the global leadership of the United States.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy,society and science and technology in an unexpected way. It highlights the importance of strengthening public health innovation and cooperation and building a strategic reserve of science and technology. It also further exposes the fatal problem of the Trump administration’s neglect of public health security and disregard for science. Against the backdrop of competition among major powers,the Trump administration continues to focus on key areas of development from the perspective of national security and future industries and takes repressive measures against China to maintain its technological superiority. While Trump’s technology policies are a major departure from the tradition of open cooperation,both parties in Congress have ensured that federal spending on science and technology grows and major projects move forward. The Biden administration will see some important reversals in U.S. technology policy.
In 2020,the U.S. policy towards China has undergone a qualitative change. Against the background of escalating the war of information and public opinion on China and worsening the atmosphere of China-U.S. relations,the Trump administration is constantly escalating strategic competition with China in high-tech,geostrategic and ideological fields. The Chinese government waged a tit-for-tat struggle,and the strategic competition between China and the United States escalated. The Trump administration has actively deployed science and technology war against China,and comprehensively upgraded pressure measures on China in the high-tech field,prompting China to elevate “independent innovation” to a new strategic level. The U.S. is accelerating its efforts to bring the South China Sea and Taiwan into the orbit of its Indo-Pacific strategy,and the contest between China and the U.S. over the South China Sea and Taiwan issue is escalating. In the field of ideology,the struggle between China and the U.S. over Hong Kong and Xinjiang has become increasingly fierce. When Biden entered the White House,Strategic competition will remain the dominant theme of Sino-U.S. relations,but the Biden administration will do more to mobilize Allies to pressure China multilaterally. In the future,the forms of Sino-U.S. strategic competition will become more complex and changeable.