Subtitle:
By:Xiaoyong Huang
Publisher:Social Sciences Academic Press
ISBN:978-7-5201-8812-8
Publication Date:2021-09-24
Language:Chinese
The largest worldwide decline in energy demand in 70 years appeared after the restrictions on mobility and socio-economic activities for the epidemic prevention and control. At the same time,with the further global low-carbon development,the energy structure becomes more diversified,energy varieties competition gets intensified,the electrification process continues,and energy consumption keeps shifting from fossil fuels to renewable resources.
Global oil development capabilities keep improving. The global proven oil reserves rise with fluctuations,but in 2019 the total was 0.12% lower than in 2018. In 2020,the average daily global oil demand was 9.47% lower than that in 2019. Compared with the decrease developing countries,the decline in demand in developed countries was sharper. The global oil supply was in severely surplus,resulting in a sharp drop in oil prices in the first half of 2020. And in the second half,global crude oil demand experienced a rapid recovery prompted by the expansionary monetary policies of governments. Crude oil production has grown slowly due to the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the epidemic. Crude oil market supply and demandcondition has gradually turned from demand insufficiency to supply shortage. International crude oil prices rebounded strongly to a near level before the epidemic,which made the oil price show a V-shaped trend. It is expected in 2021,as demand increases,oil prices will rise showing an uneven trend. OPEC and Russia will continue to dominate the world oil market,and the US shale gas will gain the opportunity to revive.
In 2020,global natural gas consumption and production dropped significantlybut the global natural gas production increased by-3.1% year-on-year,which is far lower than the average growth rate from 2009 to 2019 of 3.1%. The gap between market supply and demand has increased. Investment in liquefied natural gas projects has suffered setbacks,and the growth rate of LNG trade has slowed sharply. International natural gas prices have fallen across the board,and LNG spot prices in Europe,America and Northeast Asia and prices in other major markets have hit a record low.