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2021 is a year of rapid recovery since the global economy experiencing the deepest recession after the 2nd World War. With the vaccine research，growth of the vaccination number and various prevention and control，the damage to the world economy from the second wave of COVID-19 has been significantly weakened，and the fiscal and monetary policies launched by various countries，especially major economies in response to the pandemic，have also contributed to economic recovery. The unpredictability of the pandemic and side effects of response policies，coupled with the various problems that existed before the pandemic，and the direction and intensity of future policy adjustments of major economies，together constitute the basic factors affecting the world economy trend in 2022.

In this book we believe that the global economic growth rate in 2021 will be around 5.5%，and that it is more likely to grow by 4.5% in 2022.

In the short term，the biggest risk facing the world economy lies in policy risks：if the monetary and fiscal policies of major developed economies to deal with inflation and sustain recovery are adjusted improperly，it will trigger plummet of asset prices，while stifling the fragile recovery and possibly pushing the economy into stagflation. In the medium and long term，the influencing factors include debts that have climbed to the highest level in history，the increasing trend of population aging in major economies，the slow growth of labor productivity，the suspension and the difficulties in reaching a consensus on reform negotiations of the multilateral trading system，the persistence of financial supervision loopholes，the mismatch between decarbonization and smooth energy transition，and the upgrading of economic nationalism，especially resource nationalism.

We believe that the world is still on a medium-to-low growth trajectory，and the world economic growth rate will generally remain between 3% and 3.5% in the next 3 to 5 years. Of course，there will be significant differences in growth rates among countries and regions.