Subtitle:
By:Dan Shi
Publisher:Social Sciences Academic Press
ISBN:978-7-5201-9818-9
Publication Date:2022-03-25
Language:Chinese
2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”,and it is also a year of troubles and opportunities coexisting in the energy industry. In September 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,saying:“China will scale up its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures. We aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.” This carbon peaking and carbon neutrality(CPCN)target Xi put forward has injected new momentum and set new requirements for the energy development in the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
The Report on the Frontiers of China’s Energy Development aims to reflect the latest dynamics of energy development,deeply analyze the existing problems,grasp the global energy trend,study the development focus,policy focus,theoretical hotspots and other topics of the year,judge the development trends of various industries in China’s energy field during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,and put forward policy suggestions.
In the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China continuously enhanced its energy supply capacity,with the energy supply and demand structure being optimized. The efficiency of energy utilization was significantly improved,while the growth rate of energy demand gradually slowed down. The reform of the energy system was deepened,with the innovation-driven results made remarkably. The deeper international cooperation strengthened the global governance capacity. The energy sector gave full play to the role of poverty alleviation,benefiting the people with rich results. This part employs the system dynamics model to predict China’s energy mix in achieving the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. It also analyzes the transition costs and corresponding paths of “double carbon” goals. Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China is facing a grim situation in its energy development. First,the economy is gradually recovering,while energy demand is beginning to rebound;second,the energy landscape is starting to change,with intensifying competition in energy technologies;third,green and low-carbon targets are being strengthened,but the construction of new power systems is a daunting task;fourth,regional imbalances are further emerging,complicating energy risks;and fifth,large-scale renewable energy available on networks is costing system transformation high. Therefore,China will complete seven important tasks of energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. First,accelerating the energy transformation and serving as the pacesetter of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality;second,improving the clean utilization of fossil energy and ensuring energy security in the transformation;third,promoting the construction of modern energy and power system driven by technological innovations;fourth,facilitating the coordinated energy development across regions and underpinning the strategic deployment of “dual circulation”;fifth,deepening the reform of energy system and providing an institutional guarantee for low-carbon development;sixth,adhering to the strategy of prioritizing energy conservation and fully tapping the potential of energy utilization efficiency;and seventh,promoting the opening up of the energy sector and deepening international cooperation.