• Questions? Call 0086-10-59367244
Current position Home > > Publications > > Special Collections > > Yearbook > > 2022


Share |

Analysis and Forecast on China's Rural Economy (2021-2022)


By:Houkai Wei, Bingxin Huang et al.

Publisher:Social Sciences Academic Press


Publication Date:2022-04-20


Paper book:US $
Ebook:US $
Paper Book& Ebook:US $
2160 1000

Table of contents:

About the author(s):


In 2021,agriculture and rural economy continued to play an important supporting role in the development of China’s economy and society. The value added of the primary industry reached 8308.6 billion Yuan,up by 7.1% over the previous year. The proportion of the value added of the primary industry in GDP fell to 7.3%. The rural population dropped below 500 million,11.57 million fewer than that in 2020. The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 5926.5 billion Yuan,an increase of 12.1%.

In 2021,the grain sown areas exceeded 1.76 billion mu,an increase of nearly 13 million mu over the previous year. A number of adverse impacts on grain production have been reduced,such as those of extreme weather disasters and the rise in the prices for agricultural means of production(e.g. chemical fertilizers). The total output exceeded 650 million tons for the seventh consecutive year,reaching a record high of 682.85 million tons. The sown areas of grain have generally increased in major grain-producing areas,in major grain-selling areas as well as in balancing areas of grain production and marketing,and grain production increased in an all-round way. The annual maize growing area was 650 million mu,with an increase of more than 10 million tons and maize output of 272.55 million tons.

In 2021,pig production capacity has been released rapidly. The total number of pigs sold in one year reached 67.128 million head,an increase of 144.24 million head or 27.4%. The output of pig meat reached 52.96 million tons,an increase of 11.83 million tons or 28.8%. Pig production has basically returned to normal levels,and the supply of pig meat in the market has been sufficient,showing a specific stage of surplus. The production capacities of beef and mutton have improved further,and the output of pork,sheep meat and poultry increased significantly. The annual output of pork,cattle,sheep meat and poultry meat totaled 88.87 million tons,an increase of 12.48 million tons or 16.3% over the previous year.

In 2021,agricultural imports and exports totaled 304.2 billion U.S.dollars,an increase of 23.2%. Among them,the exports of agricultural products reached 84.4 billion U.S.dollars,an increase of 10.9%. The imports of agricultural products reached 219.8 billion U.S.dollars,an increase of 28.7%. The international trade deficit of agricultural products reached 135.5 billion U.S.dollars,an increase of 42.9%. The annual grain imports reached 164.54 million tons,an increase of 18.1%. Among them,the imports of maize reached 28.35 million tons,an increase of 152.2%. The imports of soybeans reached 96.52 million tons,a decrease of 3.8%. In 2021,the imports of meat reached 9.38 million tons,a decrease of 5.4%. Among them,the imports of pig meat reached 3.71 million tons,a decrease of 15.5%. The imports of cattle meat reached 2.33 million tons,an increase of 10.1%.

In 2021,the overall prices for agricultural commodities decreased by 2.2%,mainly due to a significant decline in the price for pigs. The producer price for pigs decreased by 35.1%,while that of grains increased by 13.8%. Of which,the producer price for maize increased by 25.5%,while that of oil rose by 7.2% over the same time span.

In 2021,farmers’ per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure were nearly 19000 Yuan and 16000 Yuan,respectively. Farmers’ income and consumption continued to grow rapidly,and the income and consumption gaps between urban and rural residents further narrowed. In 2021,farmers’ per capita disposable income was 18931 Yuan,an increase of 10.5% in nominal terms or 9.7% in real terms,faster than the growth of GDP and per capita disposable income of urban residents. The income ratio of urban and rural residents decreased to 2.50,a decrease of 0.06. Farmers’ income in areas lifted out of poverty continued to grow at a faster rate. The per capita disposable income of farmers in counties lifted out of poverty was 14051 Yuan,an increase of 11.6% in nominal terms or 10.8% in real terms. Farmers’ per capita consumption expenditure was 15916 Yuan,an increase of 16.1% in nominal terms or 15.3% in real terms,respectively,both of which being higher than those of urban residents. The per capita consumption expenditure ratio of urban and rural residents decreased to 1.90,a decrease of 0.07. The Engel’s coefficient of rural residents was 32.7%,the same as that in 2020.

It is predicted that in 2022,market fluctuations in international agricultural commodities may intensify,and the structural contradiction between supply and demand of domestic main agricultural commodities remains prominent. Extreme disaster weather can possibly appear once again and affect agricultural production in certain areas,and the prices for agricultural means of production may continue to show an upward trend. However,China will take effective measures to deal with various uncertainties,risks and challenges,and realize a steady development of agricultural and rural economy. It is estimated that the value added of the primary industry will reach about 9000 billion Yuan in 2022. The total grain output will possibly reach about 690 million tons,of which the production of maize and soybean will increase. The supply-demand structure will be effectively improved while good grain harvest can continue. The output of pig meat will likely reach about 55 million tons. Farmers’ per capita disposable income is expected to exceed 20000 Yuan. Although the prices for agricultural commodities are predicted to rise in 2022,it will be generally in a controllable range. The increase in food consumption prices will be significantly lower than that of agricultural commodities.