Preface for Chinese versionⅠKevin Rudd ..................................／1
Preface for Chinese versionⅡRoss Garnaut ................................／2
Preface ..................................................................／4
Acknowledgments ..........................................................／5
Terms of reference .......................................................／7
Introduction .............................................................／8
Synopsis of key points ...................................................／26
1 A decision-making framework ...........................................／1
1.1 The costs of mitigation .........................................／3
1.2 Risk and uncertainty ............................................／7
1.3 Four types of benefits from mitigation ..........................／9
1.4 How effective adaptation reduces the costs of climate change ....／12
1.5 Measuring the benefits of mitigation against the costs ..........／14
1.6 A graphical representation of the benefits and costs ............／15
1.7 Valuing the future relative to the present ......................／17
2 Understanding climate science .........................................／23
2.1 The earth’s atmosphere .........................................／24
2.2 Understanding climate change ....................................／27
2.3 Linking emissions and climate change ............................／31
2.4 The task of global mitigation ...................................／42
3 Emissions in the Platinum Age .........................................／52
3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by source and country ..................／52
3.2 Recent trends in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels .....／54
3.3 Existing emissions projections ..................................／57
3.4 The Review’s no-mitigation projections:
methodology and assumptions ....................................／58
3.5 Results from the Review’s projections and comparisons
with existing projections ......................................／61
3.6 The impact of high energy prices ................................／66
3.7 Resource limits .................................................／69
4 Projecting global climate change ......................................／75
4.1 How has the climate changed? ....................................／78
4.2 Understanding climate change projections ........................／83
4.3 Projected climate change for the three emissions cases ..........／87
4.4 Assessing the climate risk ......................................／96
5 Projecting Australian climate change ..................................／105
5.1 Attributing climate change to humans ............................／105
5.2 How has the climate changed in Australia? .......................／106
5.3 Projected climate change in Australia ...........................／112
6 Climate change impacts on Australia ...................................／122
6.1 Understanding Australia’s vulnerability to climate change ......／125
6.2 Australia without global mitigation .............................／126
6.3 Direct impacts of climate change on Australia ...................／129
6.4 Indirect impacts of climate change on Australia .................／144
7 Australia’s emissions in a global context ............................／153
7.1 Australia’s emissions profile and international comparisons ....／153
7.2 Emissions profiles of Australian industries .....................／165
8 Assessing the international response ..................................／172
8.1 The evolving international framework for
addressing climate change ......................................／173
8.2 National commitments and policies to mitigate climate change ....／176
8.3 Assessment of progress under the Kyoto Protocol .................／179
8.4 Projections given the current trajectory of mitigation effort ...／181
8.5 Accelerating progress ...........................................／182
9 Towards global agreement ..............................................／189
9.1 Agreeing on a global goal .......................................／190
9.2 What form should national commitments take? .....................／193
9.3 A graduated approach to national commitments ....................／195
9.4 Principles for allocating emissions entitlements
across countries ...............................................／198
9.5 Modelling a per capita approach to the allocation
of emissions entitlements ......................................／202
9.6 Reaching agreement on 550 or 450: is it possible? ...............／209
10 Deepening global collaboration .......................................／214
10.1 International public funding for mitigation ....................／215
10.2 International public funding for adaptation ....................／220
10.3 Promoting collaborative research to assist developing countries ／222
10.4 International trade in emissions rights ........................／224
10.5 Price-based sectoral agreements for the trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive sectors ....................................／226
10.6 Climate change and trade policy ................................／228
10.7 International aviation and shipping ............................／230
10.8 Land-use change and forestry ...................................／231
10.9 Enforcement mechanisms .........................................／234
11 Costing climate change and its avoidance .............................／241
11.1 The three global scenarios .....................................／242
11.2 Comparing the costs of climate change and mitigation ...........／243
11.3 Modelling mitigation ...........................................／246
11.4 The decision to mitigate .......................................／248
11.5 How much mitigation? ...........................................／262
12 Targets and trajectories .............................................／271
12.1 Determining our conditional and unconditional targets ..........／272
12.2 The benefits of global cooperation .............................／279
12.3 Solving a diabolical problem in stages .........................／281
12.4 Hastening progress towards greater emissions reductions ........／283
12.5 Moving from a 550 to a 450 goal ................................／284
12.6 Does Australia matter for global mitigation? ...................／284
12.7 Interim targets ................................................／287
12.8 Implications for an Australian emissions trading scheme ........／294
13 An Australian policy framework .......................................／293
13.1 Confronting uncertainty: the policy challenges of
climate change .................................................／297
13.2 Avoiding the greatest market failure ever seen .................／300
13.3 Bungling Australia’s emissions trading scheme .................／307
14 An Australian emissions trading scheme ...............................／313
14.1 The framework to guide efficient scheme design .................／314
14.2 Elemental design features ......................................／316
14.3 Releasing permits into the market ..............................／322
14.4 Lowering the costs of meeting targets ..........................／326
14.5 Addressing the distortion faced by trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive industries .................................／332
14.6 Transition period: Australia’s emissions trading
scheme to the end of 2012 ......................................／341
14.7 Governance: institutional arrangements .........................／343
14.8 Addressing the relationships between an emissions trading
scheme and other policies ......................................／344
14.9 Summary of design features of an Australian
emissions trading scheme .......................................／348
15 Adaptation and mitigation measures for Australia .....................／354
15.1 Information and understanding ..................................／356
15.2 The role of markets and market-based policies ..................／360
15.3 Scaling the challenges: five examples ..........................／366
16 Sharing the burden in Australia ......................................／375
16.1 Effects of mitigation policy in the short term .................／376
16.2 A framework for government intervention ........................／383
16.3 Long-term impacts and structural change ........................／389
17 Information barriers to known technologies ...........................／392
17.1 The impact of information and agency barriers ..................／392
17.2 Information barriers ...........................................／395
17.3 Principal-agent problems .......................................／402
17.4 Minimum performance standards ..................................／404
18 The innovation challenge .............................................／411
18.1 What is innovation? ............................................／412
18.2 Ensuring optimal levels of early research ......................／415
18.3 Rewarding early movers .........................................／420
18.4 Overcoming barriers from technological lock-in .................／427
19 Network infrastructure ...............................................／431
19.1 The transmission of electricity ................................／432
19.2 The distribution of electricity ................................／437
19.3 Gas transmission infrastructure ................................／438
19.4 The transportation of carbon dioxide ...........................／439
19.5 The transport of passengers and freight ........................／441
19.6 Water supply infrastructure ....................................／444
19.7 The planning of urban settlements ..............................／445
20 Transforming energy ..................................................／452
20.1 The energy sector today ........................................／453
20.2 Drivers of the transformation ..................................／457
20.3 The transformation .............................................／463
20.4 Modelling results for the energy sector ........................／467
20.5 Major economic impacts .........................................／474
20.6 Risks to the transformation ....................................／483
21 Transforming transport ...............................................／486
21.1 The role of transport and its current structure ................／487
21.2 Causes of the transformation ...................................／489
21.3 Economic modelling results: a possible future? .................／494
21.4 The path to transformation: a picture of future transport ......／500
21.5 Fostering the transformation ...................................／509
22 Transforming rural land use ..........................................／514
22.1 Drivers of a transformation towards lower emissions ............／515
22.2 Economic modelling results: a possible future? .................／519
22.3 An alternative future ..........................................／524
22.4 Barriers and limits to a low-emissions future ..................／539
23 Towards a low-emissions economy ......................................／547
23.1 The dynamics of economic adjustment with global mitigation .....／548
23.2 The economy to and at 550 ppm ..................................／551
23.3 The difference between 550 and 450 .............................／556
23.4 Australia in the low-emissions world energy economy ............／559
23.5 The downside risks .............................................／560
23.6 The upside in technology assumptions ...........................／562
23.7 The importance of flexible global and national markets .........／565
23.8 The importance of education and training .......................／567
23.9 Global mitigation and ongoing prosperity .......................／568
23.10 Australia in a successful world of change .....................／569
24 Fateful decisions ....................................................／571
List of figures and tables ...............................................／578
List of shortened forms ..................................................／586
Glossary .................................................................／588
Professor Ross Garnaut is Distinguished Professor in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University.
Description:
The Garnaut Climate Change Review is one of the most important reports to be published in Australia for many years and examines the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, the costs of adaptation and mitigation, and the international context in which climate change is experienced and negotiated.
